The most polarizing, publicized, and pressurized team in the NBA was sent home on Monday night at the hands of the Denver Nuggets. It caused a much more bitter taste within the Lakers organization than their scintillating run had only a year prior.
The difference is that their season finished in late April in the Western First Round as opposed to late May in the Western Conference Finals. Their fate as a team with fluctuating lineups forced them into the 7th-seed and an early rematch with the defending champs.
While the Lakers shockingly led for 75% of game time, they wound up losing four of their five postseason games and were eliminated by Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets for the second-straight year.
This year’s matchup felt way more competitive with the Nuggets needing two game-winners from Jamal Murray and the Lakers furiously responding with their backs against the wall.
The Lakers knew they would have to overcome the Nuggets eventually. So why does this defeat feel so unexpectedly seismic?
It’s because the team faced a hard truth: The Lakers just aren’t good enough. Not anywhere good enough to beat the Nuggets, not good enough to win the NBA title, and perhaps not worthy enough to retain the King’s services.
General Manager Rob Pelinka had a rollercoaster ride in 2023 and entered the offseason at its absolute peak, with a 38-year-old LeBron James at the doorstep of the NBA Finals. But he had to navigate a miles-long track of possibilities as to who to re-sign and who to go after.
Pelinka impressively re-signed his new backcourt mates D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves to a pair of very team-friendly deals. He re-signed the new rising star Rui Hachimura and a slew of hidden gems in Taurean Prince, Cam Reddish, Christian Wood, and Jaxson Hayes. And he said farewell to the always-underwhelming Dennis Schroder in favor of playoff supernova Gabe Vincent.
The result was a much longer and higher threshold offensive team that was well-equipped to climb the Western Conference. And yet, they landed right back where they started in the 7th-seed, learning they were reliant on too many youths and didn’t have enough intensity.
A LeBron James and Anthony Davis-led rotation consisted of the unproven Max Christie, still-inefficient Reddish, still-frail Hayes, and the inconsistent Wood whose struggles with defensive effort caused his playing time to evaporate. The Lakers were dead-last in offensive rebounding, bottom-5 in opponent assists, and bottom-5 in both opponent field goal and 3-point attempts.
The trade for Spencer Dinwiddie to make up for the injured Vincent, and the continuity of Russell-Reaves-Rui as starters, did give the team a spark in the second half and gave them momentum entering the Play-In Tournament. In short, they were a sweet-shooting 3-point team lifted by LeBron offensively and anchored by AD defensively.
Right there waiting for them in Round 1 was Denver. Jokic, Murray, Mike Malone and all. And the mile-high environment ready to test LeBron’s conditioning and AD’s toughness.
Game 1 was a tight battle charged by the stars until the Nuggets’ teamwork and sorcery from 3-point range took over, resulting in a 113-104 opening win in Denver.
Game 2 was easily the greatest game of the series, with the Lakers blowing a 20-point second half lead and the Nuggets storming back towards a one-possession game in the final minute. Jamal Murray rose for a jumper to tie, LeBron came down and elected for his top-of-the-key three which didn’t go, and Murray swirled back around for a buzzer-beater over AD by his bench. Denver closed the book on Game 2 with a 101-99 win.
Game 3 was a highly anticipated Thursday night TNT affair, with the Lakers aiming to gain momentum in the series and squash their soul-crushing 10-game losing streak against the Nuggets. LA gained their third-consecutive first half lead until size overcame them in the closing quarters. Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. stepped up with 20-10 games and the shooting-inept Lakers fell 112-105 in a 3-0 deficit.
Game 4 was a must-win game on Saturday night and LA kept with Denver the whole way. The stars shined in their space with LeBron as a scorer and AD as a paint force, which lifted the play of their supporting cast and disrupted all the Nuggets rhythm. The Lakers stayed strong for a 119-108 victory.
Game 5 this past Monday was the most competitive all the way through, with no quarter won by more than seven points and the game coming down to the final minutes. It was less of LA blowing yet another lead and more of Jokic and Murray imposing their will. Porter Jr. was unstoppable and Murray lethal leading up to the latter’s second game-winner in the closing seconds of a 108-106 series-clinching win.
LA had no answer for Denver’s forwards, with Porter Jr. breaking out of his playoff slump to average 22.8 points on 20-41 3-point shooting, and Gordon playing brilliantly to average nearly a double-double with 4.6 assists. There was nobody capable of shutting down Murray and his crunch-time heroics, and too few bodies to limit the inside presence of Jokic.
By design, the Lakers were drawn up to be a playoff team and have an easier time getting there, with sizeable depth and offensive firepower that could withstand injuries to their superstars.
They were never a serious threat to the Nuggets, and the only reasons why the series was so competitive are the legendary playmaking and leadership of LeBron James.
The King, still an absolute monster at 39-years-old, is just that strictly from an offensive standpoint. He’s relied on his skill and strength to punish as a scorer in recent years, which he complements with superb vision and torpedo passing. To ask him to chase around and contest a taller Michael Porter Jr. and stand tall with the oft-leaping Aaron Gordon in the paint is naïve, and it’s just unfortunate for LeBron that the Nuggets are so tough in the frontcourt.
Davis, applauded for staying healthy and dominating on both ends for 76 games (his most since 2018!), is truthfully not the physical specimen that could contain Jokic. Averaging 27.8 points and 15.6 rebounds on 63.4% shooting is absurd, but Jokic was a tick better, and particularly more troubling in the final stretch.
The Nuggets center is the best player in the world, and for someone as skilled and dangerous as Davis is, he’s not one of the short-short-short group of people strong enough, large enough, and *crazy* enough to mitigate him (a la Embiid, Wembanyama, Allen, and Gobert TBD).
Let’s pause quick…it’s crucial to acknowledge Anthony Davis was not the reason the Lakers didn’t win the championship. He’s often criticized by people, myself included, for not living up to the play of his 2020 self who snatched the NBA title and was in the conversation for the best player in the world. This is a different time, and Davis is sadly a casualty of the times of Jokic, similar to what Barkley and Malone were in the age of Jordan.
When you look at this backcourt…man…not gonna cut it against Denver. D’Angelo Russell is in that Trae Young-Damian Lillard-Coby White camp of just being an absolute traffic cone when it comes to defense…problematic for a title chase. Russell does have the propensity to match Murray’s output, illustrated by his 7 3-pointer masterpiece in Game 2, however he’s far too inconsistent to be considered a real building block, illustrated by his catastrophic 0-point outing two days later.
D’Angelo Russell made excellent strides this year, setting the Lakers franchise record for three-pointers made in a single season and reassuring himself as a starting caliber point guard in the NBA. Where he took steps back once again were with consistency and effort, meaning he fundamentally must be paired with an offensive and defensive stalwart 2-guard.
That brings us to Austin Reaves, who did improve upon his 2023 campaign as nearly a full-time starter and secondary playmaker. He definitely does not fit that mold alongside Russell. He was up-and-down throughout the first three games of the series, he never erupted for 3 or more 3-point field goals in any of the five games, and he never came close to a double or triple-double this time around.
Reaves was one of the shining supporting players in the playoffs last year with *8* games of 3 or more 3’s made. He was at his best against these same Nuggets, averaging 21.3 points and 5.3 assists on 14-25 3-point shooting in the series. But this year he averaged just 16.8 points and 3.6 assists on 7-26 3-point shooting in the series.
And then there’s Rui Hachimura, who (hooray!) is better than Kentavious Caldwell-Pope as a fifth option but the Lakers are already down bad with options 1-4, and Hachimura is painfully flawed in the given role. 2024 was a celebrated season for Rui, who followed up on his sensational playoffs last year to post the best year of his career, however LA needed much more than his offense in this year’s playoff bout.
He was awful, averaging 7.8 points and 3.8 rebounds in over 30 minutes per game, and shooting just 39.5% from the field and 35.7% from 3; he also didn’t record a single block or a single steal in 150 minutes. Listen…anyone could have told you this was a bad matchup but I especially would have told you that Rui’s not capable of starting playoff games, let alone going 30 minutes against the Nuggets. He’s a…and my local friends will like this one…a glorified and grounded Obi Toppin, instant offensive four off the bench and one of the softest fours in the league.
Russell and Reaves appear to be neck-and-neck as “third options” for the Lakers, expect neither are physically strong enough or consistent enough to be. Gordon and Porter Jr. are *both* in different yet perfectly complementary ways. The backcourt mates would fare better hierarchically as the fourth or even fifth most important players.
Rui come playoff time is a bench player for the same reasons Peyton Watson continues to come off the bench for the Nuggets. Neither are good enough on both ends (Watson in this case offensively) to warrant a starting-and-closing spot as well as 30 minutes a night in the playoffs.
Russell-Reaves-Rui as full-time starters awaiting a matchup against Denver was erroneously flawed since October, especially alongside a 39-year-old stopping no one LeBron James.
And the rest of the supporting cast? The potential X-factors who could’ve shaken up this series, given how close it really was? Major issues…
Dinwiddie hadn’t gotten nearly enough minutes to get rolling after being a lightning rod from downtown previously, Vincent hadn’t been healthy enough all year, and Hayes was tossed around like a rag doll as someone who never should be called upon by a championship contender. Prince, a strong defender who probably should’ve started this series, could not maximize his greatest strength in three-point shooting, which may have been a ripple effect from the team’s overall slump.
Would a different coach have changed things? Probably on the margins but not in the aggregate. Could Rob Pelinka have made more forward-thinking signings? Absolutely, even if the cap sheet was a bit stiff. And was LeBron James capable albeit better circumstances of bouncing the best team in the West? I believe so.
And that last part is what makes this entire tenure of LeBron on the Lakers a failure, in that they had arguably the greatest player of all time with a never-ending prime and couldn’t secure a second ticket to the NBA Finals. They’ve never had a strong enough defensive team to create problems for the Suns, the Warriors, and now the Nuggets.
The Lakers just aren’t good enough, not as currently constructed. They need more size, wingspan, sharpshooting, and a long bench of giants to try and mitigate Jokic when the time comes.
Last night, my least favorite roster construction in the NBA fell flat on its face in the most magnificent fashion – a clean-sweep right out of the First Round. Nobody thought the Minnesota Timberwolves would win four straight. I just thought they’d win because they were the better team.
I’ve known really since October that the makeup of the Phoenix Suns was problematic, and it was a much louder alarm for me. Some thought they were talented enough to challenge the Nuggets and even go all the way. They were the third-highest betting favorite in the preseason to win the league title.
Easy win for Vegas. The Suns were a rec-league team at best.
There were three detrimental moves made in just an eight-month span that resulted in yesterday’s embarrassing playoff exit. The constant? New Suns owner Mat Ishbia, who took control midseason and dove in headfirst to win now.
First, Ishbia encouraged General Manager James Jones to make a push for Kevin Durant and he was able to, sending two rising stars in Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson along with several other assets for the Nets superstar. It was and still is an impressive feat, yet two playoffs later, no title.
After a tough six-game series against the eventual champion Nuggets, Ishbia kept his foot on the gas and searched the market for another star. His second move was signing off on the unthinkable, trading Chris Paul for the Wizards’ Bradley Beal.
The acquisition of Paul in Fall 2020 was the turning point for the Phoenix rising. He took pressure off Devin Booker and helped maximize his strengths, he created easy three-point shots for players such as the aforementioned Bridges and Johnson, he helped number one overall pick Deandre Ayton make the leap towards national stardom, and he united the Suns emotionally and schematically on their charging path towards the NBA Finals.
Paul, 37, was looked at by Jones and Ishbia (who inherited the point guard in the team sale) as a player worth upgrading. The stars aligned, literally, and Ishbia got his third star in Bradley Beal. The Suns took a play out of the Nets’ (failed) playbook to form a lethal offensive trio of Beal, Durant, and Devin Booker and couldn’t wait to unleash it onto the opposition.
Just a month before the season began, Ishbia made his third and final move, sending away Ayton in a three-team deal that netted them Grayson Allen and Jusuf Nurkic. The healthy, maxed-out, “try and stop us” lineup the Suns entered the season with was Allen-Booker-Beal-Durant-Nurkic.
So you’re a reasonable NBA fan in October 2023 and it’s quiz time. Can that lineup reach the NBA Finals? Is it good enough to compete with the Nuggets in the Conference Finals?
I was circling the answer that went against that heavily-flawed, video-game-like lineup being a threat.
Mat Ishbia encouraged the boneheaded decision to trade Chris Paul for Bradley Beal. In one fell swoop, he traded the engine of the Suns’ superb offense and threw a blender into the Booker-Durant complex, that at the time hadn’t even had three months to learn about itself.
But it was James Jones who made the conscious decision to enter the season without a damn point guard. I was skeptical about the star trio to begin with and had major issues with the Suns random compilation of budget-friendly wings like Josh Okogie and Yuta Watanabe filling out the roster. And I was just pissing myself that the Suns elected to enter an NBA season without a legitimate ball handler.
What a paradox to go from the greatest point guard of his generation to, well Devin Booker and Bradley Beal have both been capable playmakers as scorers and now they can play off each other! And what ass-backwards buffoonery to be in a position to have both Devin Booker and Kevin Durant playing beside each other and electing NOT to have Chris Paul setting them up.
The 2024 Suns were healthy aside from a Bradley Beal back injury that prolonged the debut of their star trio. They of course produced a top-10 offense and they even had a formidable defense, both of which a result of a masterful season from Kevin Durant who played his most games (75) since his last days as a Warrior in 2019.
Durant took immense pressure away from Devin Booker on a nightly basis, elevating him to an easy 27.1 points per game, and enabled Grayson Allen to shoot a league-best 46.1% from 3-point range.
Beal returned to the lineup in spurts before being back full-time in late December. He enjoyed a career-best efficiency in his first time being a third option, scoring 18.2 points per game on 50-40-80 shooting. The Suns blitzed their way to a 49-33 record behind high-volume outside shooting and late-game shot-making.
And when the playoffs began, they drew one of the truest teams in the playoff bracket: the Minnesota Timberwolves. It was an intriguing matchup, a real offense vs defense showdown and one headlined by scoring machines of the past and future in Kevin Durant vs Anthony Edwards.
Edwards and the Wolves 4-0’d them.
The Suns leaned heavily into their star trio who each shot over 59 field goal attempts in the series, whereas none of their teammates shot over 30. Their random batch of supporting characters were ineffective since there was no primary playmaker to get them going.
The Wolves outclassed with 98 assists to the Suns 79. The latter’s gameplan of isolating their gifted scorers and bailing them out with outside shooters succumbed quickly to the former’s top-ranked defense. Each Suns rally, and particularly the one in the closeout game, fell apart without a point guard commanding the ship.
Chris Paul had been golden in those key moments. Game 4 was like watching a bunch of dogs playing without a leash, but with no one around to guide them home.
Critics of Rudy Gobert and the double-big lineup altogether had their head into their hands thanks to Jusuf Nurkic. I’ve been banging the drum for years that he is one of the least effective centers to compete with. His wide frame and long arms create the illusion that he’s a mountain, when in reality he’s a gentle giant who can’t score or shut down the paint.
Swapping out Paul and Ayton for Beal and Nurkic was pitiful. A surefire way to soften up the team and take away easy baskets.
The tale of the 2024 Suns could be kept in the folder entitled “Failed Three Scorer Experiments”, alongside the 2022 Nets, the 2022 Lakers, the 2018 Timberwolves, and the current state of the Bulls. A copy should also be kept in the folder entitled “No Point Guard Philosophy” with the 2022 Knicks and the 2024 Spurs.
However, the real takeaway from the 2024 Suns is that they brought three imperfect stars together who all brought about their weaknesses.
Bradley Beal has never been and never will be a strong defender. Major kudos to him for upping his play as a third option, since not many 30 point-per-game scorers could make that descent. But most third options, especially ones playing next to such alphas as Booker and Durant, need to be an impact defender if they’re to compete for a title.
Devin Booker posts way too many duds for someone of his offensive prowess. He’s not the three-point assassin that casual fans might label him as. His most glaring detriment as a franchise player is his incredibly sour body language when things turn for the worst.
Kevin Durant is not a leader. It’s the second time he’s been swept in three years, he doesn’t make the lesser players great, and he can never play a different game to win. Time and time again it’s been proven that he cannot lead a team to a championship.
The Suns have no first-round picks until 2031. They’re on the cusp of firing their head coach for losing with a broken roster. Devin Booker might now be traded since Bradley Beal’s contract is immovable.
Point guards, rim protectors, balance of skill, and heart. These are the pillars of a real championship caliber team. The 2024 Suns were never one of them.
Last week, the Portland Trail Blazers officially turned over a new leaf by trading their all-time leading scorer, Damian Lillard, to the Milwaukee Bucks in an Earth-shattering deal that also involved the Phoenix Suns.
The Blazers legend formally requested a trade back in July, voicing displeasure with the team’s direction and his wish to compete for a contender. Months had gone by without any traction and teams kept entering the suitor pool, however only from the Eastern Conference given the Blazers didn’t want the threat of him regionally.
The Heat were the first players at the table and the leading favorites to land him once Lillard made his interest public. The Sixers and Nets were the only other teams I mentioned back in July, the Raptors had made a late-entry to the table last week, and the Knicks were sitting patiently with a treasure chest of assets. But ultimately it was the Bucks who made the deal happen.
Full trade details:
Milwaukee receives: Damian Lillard
Portland receives: Jrue Holiday, Deandre Ayton, Toumani Camara, MIL 2029 1st, swap rights with MIL in 2028 & 2030
Phoenix receives: Jusuf Nurkic, Grayson Allen, Nassir Little, Keon Johnson
This trade not only sets three franchises on a new path but also shifts the balance of power throughout the NBA. It reorders the standing amongst the elite and accelerates one of the more intriguing rebuilds at the bottom. But I can’t say that each team walked away a winner.
Here are my grades for the league-altering deal:
Milwaukee Bucks: A
Received: Damian Lillard
Sent: Jrue Holiday, Grayson Allen, 2029 1st, swap rights in 2028 & 2030
Another masterclass trade by Jon Horst, the general manager responsible for the ascension of the Bucks.
Horst helped develop a multi-time MVP and built a powerhouse in small-market Milwaukee. His shrewd maneuvering ultimately led the Bucks to the 2021 NBA Championship.
He first traded Greg Monroe and a pair of draft picks for a new star guard in Eric Bledsoe. A few years later he’d trade Bledsoe along with 5 first-round picks for a better star guard in Jrue Holiday. And now, he’s traded Holiday and more assets for a bonafide superstar in Damian Lillard.
It was the right time for Horst to make another move.
In the years following their championship win, the Bucks would fail to defend their title, nonetheless make another Conference Finals. Their juggernaut offense crumbled in the playoffs and their original superstar wasn’t playing at his best.
That aforementioned multi-time MVP is Giannis Antetokounmpo, the “Greek Freak” who’s an absolute bulldozer with tremendous footwork and graceful touch. But his physicality often forces him into offensive fouls, and his jumpshot is far too mechanical and inconsistent.
His unreliable late-game scoring has been the Bucks’ Achilles heel in the last two postseasons, particularly this past year when they collapsed in three consecutive fourth quarters in their First Round loss to Miami. That’s what makes their new piece an epic solution.
They’ve now brought in Damian Lillard, one of the greatest scorers in recent memory, one of the greatest shooters in the modern NBA, one of the 75 greatest players in league history, and the unquestionable king of crunch-time scoring…or should I just call it “Dame Time”.
Lillard’s off-dribble shot-making and outside shooting are world-class. And over the years, several Western Conference opponents have been eviscerated by his playoff heroics. The Bucks will now pair that 7x All-NBA lightning with their own 7x All-NBA thunder.
They are two of the most unguardable players on the planet now donning the same jersey, and instead of getting in each other’s way, they’re going to benefit one another fantastically. Dame and Giannis, for all of their individual greatness, are perhaps the two most selfless superstars in the game today.
The acquisition of Dame does come at a cost and it’s a gut-wrenching one for the Bucks to swallow. Horst traded Jrue Holiday, the starting point guard and the star player who put Milwaukee over the hump.
His value had been the highest in years after receiving his first All-Star accolade in over a decade and earning recognition as the league’s best defensive guard. But I’m likely in the small minority that believes he’s starting to reach a cliff.
Holiday has endured a lot of mileage as the lead playmaker for a top-ranked offense and defensive stalwart for a top-ranked defense, often guarding the best players on the opposing team. It might’ve been his most pressing year as a Buck, carrying more of an offensive load without Khris Middleton and battling the Heat in the opening round.
The All-Star struggled mightily from an offensive standpoint, dropping off his efficiency and settling for worse shot attempts (47.9% FG, 38.4% on 6.1 3PA in the regular season vs. 40.0% FG, 28.6% on 8.4 3PA in the postseason). He also got obliterated from a defensive standpoint to the tune of 37.6 points per game from Jimmy Butler.
Lillard, who averaged 32.2 points per game himself, is artillery that can counteract opposing threats like Butler, and then some. Though he’s much closer to a turnstyle than a stopper like Holiday, he’ll at least be anchored by the greatest defensive frontcourt in the league composed of Giannis, Bobby Portis, and Defensive Player of the Year runner-up Brook Lopez.
As for the other pieces in the deal, the Bucks’ faithful won’t have a hard time saying goodbye to Grayson Allen. Their most recent starting two-guard was a very one-dimensional player as a three-point marksman without much upside, only amassing 20+ points 4 times and maxing out with 5, 5, 6, and 7 3-pointer games in 2022-23.
His final snapshot as a member of the Bucks will be not getting a shot off in the elimination game against Miami:
As for the first round pick and neighboring pick swaps, they have been a small price to pay for talent as long as the team keeps putting together good seasons.
This trade was a home run as soon as Jon Horst acquired Lillard with four years remaining on his contract, but it evolved into a grand slam given the outside implications. Giannis Antetokounmpo was intent on not signing a contract extension ahead of his 2025 Free Agency, unless the Bucks showed a serious commitment towards a title.
“I’m a Milwaukee Buck, but most importantly I’m a winner…I want to win a championship. As long as we’re on the same page with that and you show me and we go together to win a championship, I’m all for it,” Giannis said.
Soon after the trade was announced, the Bucks (+375) became the betting odds to win that said championship.
Portland Trail Blazers: A+
Received: Jrue Holiday, Deandre Ayton, Toumani Camara, MIL 2029 1st, swap rights with MIL in 2028 & 2030
Sent: Damian Lillard, Jusuf Nurkic, Nassir Little, Keon Johnson
I had been a huge critic of general manager Joe Cronin ever since he said he wasn’t going to rush the trading process.
After finishing with the third-worst record in the Western Conference, the Trail Blazers received the No. 3 overall pick in the NBA Draft. Lillard called for Cronin to trade the pick in order to get pieces that would help the Blazers contend. Cronin went ahead and selected Scoot Henderson of the G League Ignite, and the following week Lillard requested to be traded himself, aiming to play for a team competing for a title.
The general manager responded to the greatest player in franchise history with a message of zero urgency, stating trade discussions could roll into the regular season. He was willing to inhibit the development of (and transition to) Scott Henderson as the leading man. That’s when I put the Trail Blazers “in jail”.
What I mean by putting a team “in jail” is that I wouldn’t watch them even if I was in jail and they were my only source of basketball consumption. I’d refuse to watch a second of their games as long as their current situation remained.
You all have one. The first I can remember was the Sixers in the fall of 2021, after Ben Simmons’ blunder underneath the basket. From that point on, I’d refuse to watch the pairing of Simmons with Joel Embiid – they were “in jail”.
After three months in the clink, Cronin finally made a deal and the Blazers were immediately released from my not-watch-list.
We’ve touched on Holiday in the previous section, and as expected, he’s already been moved to another team. You could say the biggest part of the return for Damian Lillard was merely a trade chip and not a cornerstone piece, but not all trades are perfect. Holiday is the best two-way point guard in the NBA and was an impressive player to receive in the deal.
The actual cornerstone piece they received might’ve been enough all on his own. Deandre Ayton is one of the best centers in the game and still ahead of his peak at just 24-years-old.
The former No. 1 overall pick has been a very steady source of offense and rebounding. He was a key ingredient for the Suns’ return to the top and helped fuel their 2021 Finals run. He gained serious traction in that year’s Conference Finals by dominating the Clippers in the paint.
Ayton will have many opportunities to elevate his game in Portland. He had previously been used as a security blanket and as someone to cause problems on the glass. He now has a chance to lead his team in scoring and provide a major lift in the development of Scoot Henderson.
If there’s something in particular to be excited about, it’s that Scoot’s competitive fire could unlock the historically feeble-minded Ayton. The center’s inability to enforce his will and take over games were ultimately the reasons that Phoenix gave up on him. If there’s another element to throw in the mix, Ayton has the playoff experience that Portland is severely lacking.
The third player acquired for sending out Lillard is Toumani Camara, a 6’8” forward from the University of Dayton. It’s very possible Camara just becomes a footnote in this huge deal, but the 23-year-old does bring intriguing upside as a reigning A-10 First Teamer and A-10 All-Defensive Team selection.
The first round pick in 2029 and the swap rights in neighboring years are too far away to evaluate with a clear lens. We can say there’s a chance those picks are all golden if Milwaukee falls apart in the upcoming years. What we do know for sure is that they’ll be turned into talent when the Blazers need inexpensive ones.
The overall assets Cronin sent out are what makes this “A” trade a shining “A+”. He did trade Damian Lillard for players that can’t produce the same output, but those players won’t be earning $63 million at the age of 36, when smaller guards decline most rapidly. If Portland wasn’t going to be competitive in the next four seasons, it’s a real good thing they got his contract off the books.
Speaking of brutal contracts, they traded their starting center Jusuf Nurkic who’s owed close to $55 million over the next three seasons. Nurkic is one of the softest centers in the entire NBA and hasn’t played over 56 games since 2018-19. His replacement will be able to stay on the floor, play more minutes, and be just as effective as a screen-setter.
He’ll stay teammates with Nassir Little who the jury’s still out on whether he can be an impactful rotation player. The former five-star recruit hasn’t wowed any of his coaches enough to give him the opportunity to play freely. He didn’t build off the momentum he drove in the latter part of 2022.
He’ll also stay teammates with Keon Johnson who’s been underwhelming enough to now be on his third team in three years. The Tennessee product was another player who took advantage of a depleted roster but did not make strides in 2023.
Cronin was able to clean his team’s payroll, cut ties with prospects in limbo in exchange for high-upside talents, and receive two legitimate stars for the face of his franchise. Rest assured, I’ll be watching the new core as much as I can.
Phoenix Suns: D
Received: Jusuf Nurkic, Grayson Allen, Nassir Little, Keon Johnson
Sent: Deandre Ayton, Toumani Camara
Now before we criticize general manager James Jones, I think it’s safe to say Matt Ishbia is running the show.
The sale of the Phoenix Suns to Ishbia was finalized back on February 6th, and ever since then the new owner has led a shake up of the entire roster. Just three days later on February 9th, the Suns traded for Kevin Durant, sending back the two greatest developmental projects of Jones’ tenure: Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson.
During Draft Week he agreed to trade Chris Paul, the player Jones acquired to revitalize the Suns, and a boat-load of assets for Bradley Beal along with his remaining $208 million contract. And last week he signed off on trading Deandre Ayton and their second-round selection for 4 rotation players.
I believe every single one of these moves to be a step backward, and a hit piece on Ishbia’s deconstruction of a 64-win Suns team is surely in mind. Right now we must discuss this deal only, which was easily the worst of his time in power.
Deandre Ayton might not have been the superstar, leader, or difference maker the Suns originally perceived him to be, yet he was still an All-Star caliber player and one of the more successful big men during his time. And he’s just been swapped out for a much older, less impactful replica with a history of injuries.
Whether they want to admit it or not, the Suns thought Ayton would be a better NBA player than Luka Doncic, selecting him with the 1st overall pick of the 2018 Draft and letting the Mavs star slide to 3rd. I can understand them not wanting to put in any more effort building him up; Monty Williams lost faith in him on numerous occasions and he wasn’t the greatest piece next to Kevin Durant.
But I’m absolutely dumbfounded that Ishbia, Jones, and company were satisfied with this return. It’s one thing to make a mistake by selecting Ayton over Luka, Trae Young, and Jaren Jackson Jr. just to name a few. However it’s another to compound that first mistake by evaporating whatever value you walked away with.
I don’t think they realize just how much worse Jusuf Nurkic is, when Nurkic is starting to slow down at 29-years-old with $55 million left on his contract and Ayton hasn’t scratched the surface of who he can become and has 3 full years left on his deal. Their rebounding and defensive metrics look eerily similar, and yes Nurkic has been more successful as a passer and 3-point shooter, but he has a far lower ceiling in terms of production and has never even gotten past the first round of the playoffs.
The Suns are clearly all-in on the offensive side of the ball, with the most dynamic scoring trio in the league and a center capable of finding open shooters. They’re going to miss Ayton’s top-flight rebounding and scoring efficiency way more than they expect.
And when they need someone willing to stand tall and contest opposing bigs, they won’t be able to ask much out of their fragile new center, whose main attribution to protecting the rim is merely bruising with his broad shoulders and heavy-set frame.
I don’t see a scenario when Jusuf Nurkic anchors the Suns to the NBA Finals.
This is also not one of those trades where you can get full by looking at the whole pie rather than just a slice.
Grayson Allen doesn’t add anything to the new high-volume backcourt outside of his high-percentage clip. Booker and Beal have lost their marksmanship in the past several years while Allen has sharpened that trade as a 39% career shooter. The main issue I have with Allen, as I alluded to earlier, is that he’s only got so few bites at the apple and isn’t really the high-threshold bench scorer seen throughout the league.
Immanuel Quickley, Malik Monk, Caris LeVert, Cam Thomas, now those are bench scorers with propensities for taking over games.
I like Nassir Little as a spark plug piece and Keon Johnson is somewhat interesting given his athletic-first archetype, except they haven’t shown enough flashes to warrant much consideration. Let’s just say there’s a reason the Blazers decided these two weren’t worth keeping for the rebuild.
It is hard to compete in the NBA Playoffs when your rotation is corrupted by inexperience. That’s the path the Phoenix has gone down since trading the likes of Landry Shamet and Jae Crowder, and not re-signing the likes of Torrey Craig or Javale McGee. Sure funds are limited when you have three max players, except they haven’t shown much interest in signing veterans for the minimum.
A lineup of Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, and Bradley Beal is currently backed by Keita Bates-Diop, Yuta Watanabe, Drew Eubanks, Damion Lee, and now the likes of Allen, Little, and potentially Johnson too. We learned last year from the Lakers’ slow start that teams can’t just accumulate young talent and expect them to perform at a championship level.
The last point I wish to make here is that I don’t think the Suns improved in this one and they willingly helped the Bucks acquire another superstar.
You never think about how your trade will impact your competitors, let alone those in the opposing conference. But it’s naive to say the Suns aiding the Bucks trade for Lillard wasn’t a destructive move, especially since both are heavy bets to win the championship.
Now that Ishbia and Jones have had their fun playing fantasy basketball, it’s time for the new starting lineup to find their rhythm. And when their 3-pointers stop falling and they need more easy baskets, or they can’t stop giving up points inside, just know that all of these setbacks were self-inflicted for the sake of depth.
After a long rebuild and five years of devastating playoff exits, the Toronto Raptors finally broke through and reached the NBA Finals. They faced off against the team of the decade, the Golden State Warriors, and actually came out on top, winning their first NBA Championship and the city’s first major sports title in 26 years.
Nobody thought they would ever get there, that they were in the group of the “very good” and not quite a contender. Much of that notion had to do with LeBron James, whose Cavaliers bounced the Raptors in three consecutive postseasons, giving birth to the concept of “LeBronto”.
The summer of 2018 created hope that their nightmare was ending, as James parted for the Lakers out West. But behind the scenes, management had grown skeptical that their current core could win the East, following a brutal Semi-Final sweep as the #1 seed. Days following their playoff exit, they fired head coach Dwayne Casey, who’d go on to receive Coach of the Year honors after a 59-win campaign.
As shocking as that was, it would never come close to the earth-shattering decision they would end up making two months later. They traded franchise superstar and All-NBA Second Teamer DeMar DeRozan, in a package deal to San Antonio for Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green. For me, it’s still the most surprising trade of my NBA fanhood.
Sending DeRozan, a durable and beloved cornerstone player, out for Leonard, an oft-injured, historically-quiet, and disgruntled star, was an enormous gamble. Not only did it break up the chemistry (and strong identity) within the Raptors backcourt, it put immense pressure on the new team to perform given Leonard was on an expiring deal.
But it worked, and so did their promotion of assistant coach Nick Nurse into the leading role.
The Raptors played superb on both ends behind a healthy Leonard, emerging Pascal Siakam, and a pissed-off guard tandem of Green and Kyle Lowry. Management pushed the needle again when it traded franchise center Jonas Valanciunas to Memphis in a package for Marc Gasol, a former All-NBA player and Defensive Player of the Year.
Loaded with three new starters and a deep bench, the 2-seed Raptors (who won 58 games) pummeled the Magic and then outlasted a very scary 76ers team, thanks to one of the greatest buzzer beaters of all-time in Game 7.
I like to call it…the “Barney Bounce”.
Because Barney’s a dinosaur…get it?
The Raptors rode that magic into a Conference Final showdown with a new juggernaut, MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks. They won a critical Game 5 on the road to take a 3-2 series lead, and on the back of Kawhi Leonard, stormed back in Game 6 at home to take the series and advance to their first NBA Finals.
Stephen Curry and the Warriors were relieved to see a team without LeBron at the final stage, even if they had a hobbled Kevin Durant. The Raptors split the first two at home but played their best team basketball during the next two games at Oracle Arena, taking a commanding 3-1 series lead. They’d come out flat in Game 5, even with Kevin Durant exiting early, yet their stars shined in Game 6, securing the NBA title that eluded them for six years.
We’ll never know if the DeRozan and Casey-led core would’ve made the leap post-LeBron. And yes, Leonard and new head coach Nurse were pieces that did lift them beyond the field of “very good”. However, you still have to credit the Raptors as a whole for breaking through after all those years, since it was still Kyle Lowry, Norman Powell, emerging players like Fred VanVleet, and the front office directing their path.
And just four summers later, they’re all gone.
Leonard. Lowry. Powell. VanVleet. Green. Gasol. Even Nurse.
Toronto created something special, as the first team operating outside the United States to win the illustrious NBA Championship, and as the first team to win that championship without a single draft-lottery selected-player on their roster (not one drafted within the first 14 picks in their class).
At the head of the historic ascent was Masai Ujiri, former Executive of the Year and current president of team operations. It’s since become a case of the Dark Knight, living (or holding your job) long enough to see yourself become the villain.
Here’s how Nick Nurse and the Raptors were set up to fail, by Ujiri and Co. following their still-celebrated 2019 Championship:
No Recruitment
Just like nobody thought the Raptors would climb the mountain, nobody really thought that Kawhi Leonard would re-sign.
Leonard somehow escaped the super-tight and selfless hard-working culture of the San Antonio Spurs. He infamously butted heads with Greg Poppovich and others during an extensive rehabilitation of his torn ACL. The Spurs believed he was healthy and ready to play, and were desperate for him to rejoin the team to claim what was taken away, but Leonard refused stating his knee wasn’t 100%, and he only played 9 games in the lackluster 2018 campaign.
Blood was boiling on both sides, with management believing its superstar wasn’t willing to take risks to better the team, and the superstar not wanting to be associated with the team any longer and certainly not into the next season. This is what led to one-half of the league-altering trade. And since he wasn’t interested in remaining a Spur for life or wearing their uniform for one final season, the Raptors knew they were trading for a “rental” and likely losing him to his much-desired free agency.
Masai Ujiri knew he had a star in the making to replace him, 25-year-old two-way power forward Pascal Siakam, and an emerging star to complement him, 25-year-old combo guard Fred VanVleet after a red-hot NBA Finals. The Raptors would still be very competitive with the returning Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka, and the up-and-coming OG Anunoby and Norman Powell.
But with those foundational pieces in place, Ujiri and the front office did nothing else to remain a contender. The defending world champions, with an instantly-successful new head coach and a fan base that stretches an entire country, weren’t able to recruit a new star.
This was the summer of 2019, perhaps the greatest free agency in recent memory with names like Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, Jimmy Butler, Tobias Harris, Kemba Walker, Khris Middleton, Julius Randle, and D’Angelo Russell. And the most notable additions they made were Stanley Johnson and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson.
I get that the team was getting more expensive, with Lowry and the young players having increasing salaries. However, there’s no excuse for not spending and taking advantage of a winning situation.
The 2020 Raptors had access to substantial profits after reaching and winning the NBA Finals, and had a $13 million decrease in team payroll compared to the 2019 champion Raptors. I know it’s not Ujiri’s money, and the loss of fan-favorite DeRozan could have created significant hardship in the previous year (a year in which they went all-in financially to build a winner), yet the effort was more than lackluster and drastically ineffective.
Ujiri couldn’t land contributors after winning the title? There were real impact players on the free agent market such as JJ Redick, Bojan Bogdanovic, Marcus Morris, Harrison Barnes, Trevor Ariza. Even on the lesser expensive side was Derrick Rose, Enes Kanter, DeMarre Caroll, Reggie Bullock, Jeff Green.
And the recruitment just got worse over the years, a slew of budget-friendly backups, castaways, and unproven players with no other offers. It was an absolute waste of a championship brand and the emergence of the Raptors onto the national, even global landscape.
For comparison, the 2013 Heat recruited Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis, the 2017 Cavaliers picked up Deron Williams and Kyle Korver mid-season, and the 2019 Warriors convinced DeMarcus Cousins to sign for a minimum.
In retrospect, Durant and Irving made things more difficult joining the Nets in the Atlantic Division, Kemba Walker helped the Celtics eliminate the defending champions, and Jimmy Butler formed one of the Eastern Conference’s new juggernauts.
The 2020 Raptors never had a shot to go back-to-back. They are easily the weakest defending champion of the last 15 years.
2. No Center
Although, the 2020 Raptors weren’t bad by any means. Without Kawhi Leonard, they actually had a higher winning percentage than the year before when they won the title (.731 compared to .707). This is where I remind you that the 2020 Raptors played 10 less games due to the pandemic, but they were still a much more dominant within the Eastern Conference.
Nick Nurse formed the top-ranked defense in the league astonishingly without Leonard, a 7x All-Defensive player and twice NBA Defensive Player of the Year. He leaned more into the scrappy Fred VanVleet, the versatile Norman Powell, the stout OG Anunoby, and the rangy Pascal Siakam, who lifted his game fantastically and became a Second Team All-NBA Player. For maintaining great success beyond Leonard, Nurse earned his own NBA Coach of the Year honors.
In the Bubble, the 2020 Raptors made very quick work of the star-less Nets in the Opening Round, and advanced to face a new-look Celtics team in the Semi-Finals. It ended up being a close battle and most games were headlined by defense. Kemba Walker and the Celtics prevailed in seven games, exposing a legitimate weakness within their opponent: the man in the middle.
Age caught up to Marc Gasol, who at 34 averaged 12.0 points and 7.3 rebounds in the 2019 NBA Finals and at 35 averaged 5.9 points and 4.3 rebounds in the 2020 Conference Semi-Finals. His drastic decline coupled by the aging Serge Ibaka forced Pascal Siakam to pick up the slack. The new front man was exhausted after taking a huge step forward so he completely crumbled in his 40 minutes per game against the Celtics, averaging just 14.9 points and 7.4 rebounds.
Boston had 3 players (Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Daniel Theis) average more rebounds per game than the leading rebounder on Toronto, and Toronto was out-rebounded altogether 330-287. Brown and Walker each had a big series in spite of their shooting struggles because they were able to penetrate the exposed paint, and Theis outperformed his regular season production going head-to-head against older centers. The series was very close and play inside was a clear differentiator.
The hardship of the 2020 season carried over into 2021, and it sadly affected the Canada-based Raptors more than any other franchise. While most arenas throughout the league weren’t hosting fans, every team except the Raptors were able to live, practice, and play at home. Strict public health guidelines made it very difficult to enter or leave Canada so Toronto’s major sports teams had to relocate for the 2021 season, giving the Raptors a temporary stay in Tampa, Florida.
Enduring a difficult and incredibly-disadvantageous situation, they unraveled and lost their top-ranked defense. They succumbed to the circumstances falling to 12th in the Eastern Conference and finished with a 27-45 mark. The starting cast did have great years offensively with VanVleet, Powell, and Anunoby all making leaps, but there was that one constant still holding the team back.
The 2021 Raptors relied on three centers when they weren’t playing small: Ujiri’s $7 million-signee Aron Baynes, Khem Birch, and Chris Boucher. Baynes (6.1 points, 5.2 rebounds per game) was merely an “opening” center who started games but did not finish them, providing a jolt at the beginning and ultimately playing less than half the game. Birch (11.9 points, 7.6 rebounds per game in 19 contests) was scooped by Ujiri midseason and added some stability, as an efficient scorer and offensive rebounder. Boucher (13.6 points, 6.7 rebounds per game) was the best of the bunch in limited time, performing with lots of energy on both ends and keeping the defense on its toes with a strong outside shot.
You don’t really wanna rotate three players for one spot like Ujiri forced them to at center, playing Baynes at the start and mixing it up with Boucher until Siakam mans the best 5-man unit down low. The 2021 Raptors couldn’t address their Achilles heel, finishing 28th in total rebounding, 28th in opponent free throw attempts, and 27th in shots blocked by opponents.
There was more of the same but less of the production in 2022. After a breakout season and a late-year surge, Chris Boucher and Khem Birch played less minutes respectively. This was caused by two things: the arrival of Precious Achiuwa, an up-and-coming big Ujiri netted back in an offseason trade, and the over-reliance of Pascal Siakam, the only heavy-usage-caliber big on the roster.
Ujiir took the ying-and-yang of Boucher and Birch, one athletic and crafty and the other stout and dependable, and threw a monkey wrench into the equation with Achiuwa, someone squarely in the middle and similarly behind schedule with his development. He enabled Nick Nurse, a defense-first coach wanting to give heavy minutes to the starters, to put the square-shaped-Siakam into the circle-shaped hole. In simpler terms, the Siakam-center lineup was forced to play twice as many minutes than the Siakam-power forward lineup, because there wasn’t a starting-caliber, high-usage NBA center on the roster.
That team went 48-34 and made the playoffs. The 2023 team the following year went 41-41 and missed it. And you’d be right to guess the center position had something to do with it.
By now Nick Nurse and Masai Ujiri determined the highly-skilled Boucher was only going to be a limited-time center best served on the bench, given his thin frame and unique perimeter toolset. Achiuwa, just 23-years-old, was still not ready for a jump in playing time, though he did perform more efficiently. Birch didn’t evolve his game or show new life so he was buried on the depth chart.
A fourth player was added to Ujiri’s center configuration: second-round pick Christian Koloko. He has a lot of promise as a shot-blocker so he got a good chunk of minutes (and starts), but he’s very raw and couldn’t muster a large role right away. The charade was finally addressed mid-season when Birch and a handful of draft picks were sent to San Antonio, of all places, for Jakob Poeltl.
An original member and lottery pick of the Raptors, Poeltl resumed his role as an interior force on both ends. He posted nearly identical numbers as he did with the Spurs, but it wasn’t significant enough of an upgrade to lift the Raptors from the middle of the pack.
So in summary, in the four seasons post-Leonard in which Nick Nurse had a backcourt of All-Star guards, an All-NBA power forward, a pair of up-and-coming wings, and a top-flight defensive identity, he and the Raptors were spectacularly-limited because Ujiri and Co. failed to add a legitimate starting center.
It never ever made sense to me why management kept playing around with their rotation of limited-time reserve-grade centers, and kept trying to force a sensational power forward into a position he wasn’t destined to play. A team loaded at both ends was screaming for a decent man in the middle.
Who knows where the Raptors would be if they added an adequate center to the mix. What I do know is, at the time of Ujiri and Co. inking Jakob Poeltl to a new 4-year, $80 million extension with the team, it is WAY too late to have solved their center problem.
3. No Off-ense
This is a lesson in roster construction.
The 2019 Raptors had a near-perfect makeup, proficient offensively and defensively. They had the do-it-all elite scorer, the efficient secondary star, the distributing point guard, the sniper, the tough man in the middle, the microwave guard off the bench, the sweet-shooting wing off the bench, the tough veteran big off the bench, the experienced reserve, and the beloved reserve.
Over the summer, a brick was thrown into that beautiful and impressive championship build, when Kawhi Leonard departed for Los Angeles and left a gaping hole in the middle of their offense. Fortunately there were promotions in order, and while it wouldn’t be the same, the offense could at least be serviceable given the circumstances.
2020 saw Pascal Siakam emerge into a leading role, Kyle Lowry back to being a score-first point guard, and Fred VanVleet enter the starting lineup with more shooting volume. OG Anunoby and Norman Powell received the biggest bumps, each earning more inside and outside shots in their newly-defined roles.
The Raptors fell from the 8th to the 13th league-ranking offensively, a very respectful drop given they lost their top scorer and a testament to their rising young players. They became more reliant on 3-point shooting and were actually more successful with the deep ball than the year prior. And we learned their defense greatly improved even with a big drop-off at center.
2021 was the year the team lost their grip, mainly due to their unique situation of playing their whole season away from home. They had lost both of their pillars in the paint to free agency, Ibaka to the Clippers and Gasol to the Lakers.
On the surface their core had productive seasons, with VanVleet and Anunoby making another leap forward, but they were clearly missing a force inside and didn’t have many impact players off the bench. So Ujiri and Co. made one of their trademark gambles, only this time it wouldn’t play in their favor.
The Raptors traded their red-hot scoring wing, “Stormin” Norman Powell, to Trail Blazers for 2-guards Gary Trent Jr. and Rodney Hood. Trent had made a huge jump himself becoming a high-volume backcourt shooter, while Hood took a huge step back after a sizzling 21-game stint the year prior. The team saw an opportunity to divide its undersized small forward into two taller perimeter threats.
The move sent the Raptors spiraling down the Conference, losing their four games and 19 of 28 overall. Trent lost his magic away from Damian Lillard and the high-offense Trail Blazers, and Hood never impressed enough to crack the starting lineup. Once a few steps away from .500, the Raptors finished 18 under and 12th in the East.
Powell, at 6’3″, was in all likelihood the smallest of the small forwards in the NBA, yet he was a spectacular offensive player for them in his final season, averaging 19.6 points on 49.8% efficiency and 43.9% from downtown (on 6.4 attempts!). He wasn’t the Raptors’ problem and could’ve easily benefitted them strictly as a Sixth Man. Trent ended up exercising the problem on both ends, playing the same position only 2 inches taller and playing eerily similar to Fred VanVleet (another case of the Raptors plugging a square piece into a circle hole.)
Then the Raptors’ luck turned around when they jumped ahead in the 2021 NBA Draft, and with the 4th-pick in a very weak class for big men, they selected Florida State’s Scottie Barnes, a 6’8″ swingman with a guard-like skillset. He’d enter the starting lineup immediately (a breath of fresh air out of the slow developmental club), after the rest of the starters slid over following the Kyle Lowry trade.
After 9 outstanding seasons up North, “Mr. Raptor” wanted a better path to a title. Ujiri and Co. found a landing spot in a sign-and-trade with the Miami Heat, the newest team in the East to climb the mountain. However, the return for one of the greatest players in franchise history has proven to be extremely underwhelming thus far, even for a free agent planning his next chapter.
This was the deal Ujiri made to net back Precious Achiuwa, just 21 years old at the time and to this day still very far from being an impact player. They also got Goran Dragic, one of the Heat’s top scorers throughout the playoffs, except he was 34 at the time and coming off an injury. He was mainly included to make the money work, though I bet Ujiri and Co. believed he could pick up some of Lowry’s production.
Expectedly the 2022 Raptors fell again offensively, but a taller core and a return to normalcy lifted their defense back to the top-10, ranking 7th in the league in fact. It was a season to rejoice as Siakam revived himself as an All-NBA player, VanVleet made his first All-Star team stepping in for Lowry, Trent and Anunoby posted career-best scoring averages, and Scottie Barnes leveled up after the All-Star break earning him league Rookie of the Year honors.
They finished 14 over .500 and claimed the 5th-seed, earning a First Round matchup with the 76ers. Philly exposed their recurring weaknesses right away, and before they knew it the Raptors were down 3-0.
Joel Embiid and Tobias Harris cooked them inside without an adequate big man, James Harden and Tyrese Maxey were too much for their backcourt to keep up with, and Philly’s wings off the bench had field days with no response. The 76ers finished them off in a blowout on the road in Game 6.
Management’s solution for 2023 was next to nothing.
That summer’s Draft gave them the big Koloko out of Arizona, complicating their center mix and putting a hault to Achiuwa’s development. They played cute and stole Otto Porter Jr. away from the champs (the Warriors who returned to the final stage much quicker.) And they ran it back with much of the same core, comprised of all five starters and their handful of reserves.
This is when I believe Nick Nurse got very frustrated with the roster.
His shooting guard, Trent, was a very one-dimensional scorer who didn’t offer much else next to his All-Star point guard . His power forward, Barnes, was still shaky offensively and had a very similar build to his corresponding small forward. His best big man, Siakam, was practically forced to play center since that same power forward played more like a guard. And his bench consisted of the world-famous Dalano Banton, Malachi Flynn, Juancho Hernangomez, and 34-year-old Thaddeus Young on his last legs.
Nurse seemingly fired back and bet the house on defense. They rose to the 4th-best defense in the league and slipped again to 24th in the league offensively.
He experimented with Barnes at shooting guard and moved Trent to a bench role (where he exceled), he catapulted Koloko up the depth chart and made him a starter, and he gave Anunoby every opportunity to raise his game and trade value.
What did Ujiri and Co. do? They finally added the center, Jakob Poeltl from San Antonio. Poeltl, 7’1″, arrived as one of the league’s top shot-blockers and rebounders, but also as one of the league’s most traditional centers with very limited offensive skill. And that didn’t help the offense one bit.
The Raptors grinded their way to .500 and a Play-In game against the Bulls, but they lost to the much more gifted offensive team led by two elite scorers.
Ujiri and Co. worked themselves to the complete opposite end of the spectrum, with one of the worst roster constructions throughout the league. Their starting guards and starting forwards are nearly identical, and that concept only works when you have Tim Duncan and David Robinson, not when you have a one-dimensional two-guard and a point guard in a power forward’s body.
Believing it wasn’t their fault for missing the playoffs, they fired Nurse, who was hired by Philadelphia just a month later to be their own head coach. I guess he impressed them in their playoff bout.
That same month, Fred VanVleet declined his player option and signed with the last-place Houston Rockets. Today, Pascal Siakam is one of the biggest names on the trade market.
Final Note
I was really happy when the Raptors won it all.
They had one of the most passionate (and populous) fanbases throughout the NBA. They had done a stellar job finding hidden talent and developing them into impact players. They were a great organization who peaked at the wrong time in the middle of LeBron James’ apex.
And they made one of the biggest gambles in league history, compounding it with a new head coach, a new starting center, and a brand-new starting five. They faced one of the league’s most recent dynasties, a game-shattering one, and came out ahead winning all three games on the road.
They won the NBA title without a lottery pick!
And just four years later, I’m happy that the team is an absolute train wreck.
Masai Ujiri and the rest of the front office made wrong move after mistake after bad decision time and time again. They had one of the best head coaches on the entire planet, who not only won the world championship in his first year on the job but raised his team’s winning percentage after losing his best player for nothing.
Nick Nurse was screaming internally for more talent. He built a championship defense and top-flight culture yet received such poor dividends any time the team struggled.
He was at his limit. The team had maxed out beyond belief.
In 2022, Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet were #1 and #2 respectively in minutes per game, rookie (ROOKIE!) Scottie Barnes was 9th, and Gary Trent Jr. was also top-15. In 2023, Siakam led the league again, VanVleet was 5th, and OG Anunoby joined the top-20.
You can not run your best players into the ground in the regular season and expect them to perform in the postseason. You can’t expect to be a championship contender with a top-tier defense and subpar offense. And you can’t not have a center.
The answers to the Raptors’ problems seemed so obvious to me, and oftentimes in the NBA, good teams are just one or two pieces away from breaking through.
Nick Nurse and the most recent Raptors core were set up to fail by the inactive and logically-challenged front office. As for the team’s window to hang another banner – it’s a ‘rap…
Every fan has something they don’t like about the Knicks.
Some are tired of Julius Randle, their bulldozing All-Star power forward whose shown to be moody and ineffective during the playoffs. Halfway through a 4-year, $117 million extension, he’s maintained his production but has supporters wanting more.
Others are tired of RJ Barrett, their score-first wing who hasn’t demonstrated improvements or raised his efficiency. Drafted with the 3rd overall pick in 2019, he hasn’t met the trajectory of the two All-NBA players selected before him.
Many are frustrated with Tom Thibodeau, their hotheaded head-coach whose squandered young talent and driven his best players into fatigue. Two years after winning Coach of the Year honors, he hasn’t deepened his rotation or scaled back on playing veterans.
And nearly all are disappointed with the front office. Despite playing in the sport’s biggest market and in the world’s most famous arena, management have been unable to acquire a superstar to the likes of Patrick Ewing and reach similar success.
Despite these recurring criticisms, the major talking points of sports media and social channels, I believe current Knicks fans are generally content, and for good reason.
Randle has reached comparable status to Carmelo Anthony, as the player who lifted the team from mediocrity and thrust it confidently into the playoffs. Barrett has carried weight offensively post-Kristaps Porzingis, as another top-five pick who provided much-needed scoring from the jump.
Thibodeau has instituted a brand of basketball similar to the ’90’s, as a defensive-minded coach who’s empowered grittiness and endurance. And the front office bet heavily on Jalen Brunson, their rising star following the arcs of Latrell Sprewell and Allan Houston.
After the pandemic-derailed 2020 season, the Knicks’ core turned a corner for the franchise and started winning, returning to the playoffs as a 4th-seed in 2021 and again as a 5th-seed in 2023. Their most recent trip finally put them over the hump with their first series win in ten long years.
All the mistakes, bad judgements, small-mindedness, and tough luck had at last been put away and positioned the team as a legitimate threat.
Then they ran into Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat, and while the series wasn’t as distressing as it was getting tormented by Trae Young, Knick fans are back to clamoring their critiques.
I may have more subtle projection, but I do have a critique I wish to talk about. And I’m sad to say this wasn’t addressed near the end of free agency: 3-point shooting.
The Knicks are not a good 3-point shooting team
In the years since Carmelo Anthony’s exit, the Knicks’ offense has been abysmal. That’s usually how it goes when you lose your top scorer, particularly one of the ten greatest of all time, but we’re talking like catastrophically bad, for an organization that sells “The Garden” as a spectacle.
You can chalk that up to bad coaching, subpar point guard play, injuries to stars, and a very young team. The problem of offense was magnified when Coach Thibodeau entered and slowed things to a crawl. The 2021 team was dead last in pace and bottom-five in offense, but finished 10 games over .500 thanks to the top defense in the league, and also the emergence of their next All-NBA player in Julius Randle.
The following year was mostly the same with less magic, as opponents started keying in on Randle and shots stopped falling for RJ Barrett. They were also employing a 30-year old wing Alec Burks to be their starting point guard and lost one of their most effective shooters in Reggie Bullock in free agency.
Then Jalen Brunson arrived and the tide completely shifted. The Villanova product and former Dallas Maverick provided a huge spark as an individual threat and floor facilitator. The team suddenly had nearly three 20-PPG scorers, far more efficient perimeter players, and a sixth man in Immanuel Quickley fully on the attack.
After a decade of below-average offense, the Knicks were the 11th-highest scoring team in the league.
Their scoring makeup was driven largely by two players, involved getting lots of shots up beyond the arc, creating second-chance shots via offensive rebounding, and using their toughness inside to the get to the free throw line.
They finished the regular season 12 games over .500 and entered the postseason with a few marks on their resume. They were a very-individualistic-scoring team (28th in assists per game), they were a poor free-throw shooting team (22nd in team percentage), and they were a slightly-below average 3-point shooting team (19th in team percentage).
The Knicks faced the Cleveland Cavaliers in the First Round, a matchup of dynamic guards and strong bigs. Through the determination of Brunson and Barrett, the ferocity of Mitchell Robinson, and mainly the zenith of Josh Hart inside the Garden, the Knicks stomped their foes in five games.
But it may surprise you to learn that the Cavaliers out-shot the Knicks from beyond the arc. The Cavs made 50 of their 153 attempts, hitting at a 32.6% clip, while the Knicks made 42 of their 149 attempts, sinking just 28.2%.
Yes they won the series in quick fashion because of stellar defense, dropping their opponents’ outside efficiency 5% from the regular season, and yes the Cavaliers are themselves elite at preventing three-point attempts, starting a pair of 7-footers and playing a slow game. However the Knicks should’ve been able to capitalize on a team 23rd in opponent percentage.
The Cavaliers had three players make at least 12 3-pointers, while the Knicks didn’t have a single player sink 10. Cleveland’s top scorer, Donovan Mitchell, led the team with 13 makes in five games, and their next two top scorers, Darius Garland and Caris LeVert, both made at least 36% of their attempts. New York’s top scorer, Brunson, led the team with 9 makes in five games, and their next two top scorers, Barrett and Randle, both made less than 26% of their attempts.
Much ado about five games, four of which were wins. Though, the series did prove the Knicks’ shooting concerns would be exercised come playoffs and that the team was incapable of taking advantage against a hands-off defense.
Could we have seen this coming?
In the regular season, 2 of their top 3 scorers, Randle and Barrett, shot less than 35% from deep. Neither of their centers, Robinson and Isaiah Hartenstein, had long-range ability (Robinson didn’t attempt a single 3-pointer). And the team leader from the year before, Evan Fournier, who set a franchise record with 241 makes, had a career-worst shooting campaign in limited time.
2. 3-point shooting cost the Knicks against the Heat
New York may have dodged a bullet with Giannis and the Bucks, but they were set to face a mean Miami team. Most fans were confident given the fact that the Knicks went a perfect 3-0 against them in the regular season, and the fact they won the First Round matchup is pretty easy fashion, and the fact that the series was a throwback to their late ’90’s bloodbaths (3 straight playoff series where the Knicks came out victorious).
However, this Miami Heat team had an arsenal, a rotation full of three-point shooting and microwave scorers.
We know the Heat didn’t have a good regular season where they were derailed by injuries and inconsistency which forced them to finish with a league-worst offense. They gave up more points than they scored on the season and were 29th out of 30 in team pace, yet they finished 6 games over .500 and made the playoffs through the Play-In Tournament.
Remember in my first article when I mentioned the Bucks annihilating the Heat in 2021, their payback series after the Bubble in which their average margin of victory was 20 in a four-game sweep? Well, let’s just say the Heat got them back once more.
After ranking 27th in the league in team 3-point percentage, the Heat…get this…caught fire from downtown in their 2023 trilogy fight. The 2021 Bucks shot 33% on high volume in Round 2. The 2023 Heat shot a blistering 45% as a team in Round 3.
Fortunately for New York, the Heat were a very similar defensive team to the Cavs, cutting off field goal attempts due to size but still giving up a healthy percentage from 3-point range, ranking one spot ahead of the Cavs at 22nd.
Life was hard in Game 1…with Julius Randle sidelined with an ankle sprain, the Knicks and their perimeter players were playing with one hand behind their back. Poor spacing and increased pressure, especially by opening the series at home, limited the Knicks to dismal 7-34 outside shooting in Game 1, while the Heat were a crisper 13-39. Their three leading guards were a combined 1-16 while Miami’s Gabe Vincent was 5-12 by himself.
The Knicks rebounded with Randle back in Game 2, feeding off the Garden crowd to drill 16 of 40 attempts, though it was still less makes than the Heat’s 17.
Then they did what many thought was impossible in Miami and were ice cold. In Game 3, they shot 8-40 from 3-point range and had no player sink more than 2. In Game 4, they shot a similar 9-28 from 3-point range (notice how the attempts went way down) while the Heat shot a much better 13-39 just like Game 1.
The Knicks rebounded again in the Garden in Game 5 making a solid 13 of their 34 attempts, though it was the same number of makes as the Heat’s 13.
And down 3 games to 2 heading back south to Miami, the Knicks made just 10 of their 35 attempts, no player outside of Brunson making more than 2. The Heat actually made less 3-pointers sinking just 7 of 27, a worse percentage, but the Knicks couldn’t take advantage and lost by 4, ending their season.
In the six-game Semi-Final series, Miami made 70 of their 229 attempts, hitting at a 30.6% clip, while New York made 63 of their 211 attempts, hitting at a 30.0% clip. The difference in marksmanship was much closer than the previous round, and their defense forced a similar 6% dip in efficiency from the regular season (and a much greater dip than their hot streak versus Milwaukee). But it was another example of the Knicks not capitalizing on another hands-off perimeter defense.
Playoff shooting is unpredictable, like Caleb Martin’s high in the Conference Finals and Michael Porter Jr’s low in the NBA Finals. However, you can account for depth and can create volume.
Despite their much improved shooting figures, Jalen Brunson (17) and RJ Barrett (14) were the only two Knicks to make double-digit 3-pointers in the six-game series. The Miami Heat had…five players make double-digit 3-pointers: Max Strus (17), Duncan Robinson (12), Gabe Vincent (11), Kyle Lowry (10), and Caleb Martin (10).
Here’s another NBA-fan term for you: playoff roster. Definition, a team designed specifically to win in the postseason and almost always consists of solid 3-point shooting.
After a disappointing 11th-place finish in 2022, the Knicks’ goal for 2023 was to just get back to the playoffs. They weren’t thinking about how their roster would fare in a Semi-Final matchup. They were thinking about adding a legitimate point guard.
We’ve learned from the Heat’s success this year that regular season success doesn’t translate to playoff success, and that some teams are built for the postseason and others are not.
The Knicks have a good team, a series-winning-caliber team, but they didn’t have a key ingredient that the Miami Heat had: 3-point *volume*.
Remember, the Knicks and the Heat each shot 30%, so there was no difference in efficiency. But if you evaluate the team stats and the box scores from each game, and if you go back and watch the turning points of their four losses, you can see that the Knicks lacked 3-point volume on their roster.
The Knicks had a better 3-point shooting team in the regular season with Brunson, Hart, Quickley, Quentin Grimes, and even Obi Toppin, but outside of Brunson, those are generally “efficiency shooters” connecting on open catch-and-shoot looks. Good for regular season, unreliable with tougher defenses come playoffs.
The Heat had a better 3-point shooting team in the postseason with Strus, Robinson, Vincent, Lowry, and Martin, all generally “volume shooters” connecting with off-the-dribble looks. Inconsistent and dangerous in the regular season, undeniable when on no matter the defense come playoffs.
The Knicks didn’t have more individual and independent and higher-ceiling 3-point shooting in the playoffs. It was the clear differentiator in a series in which the Knicks lost games by 7, 8, and 4.
Here’s the hard truth: The Knicks were just as good as the Heat in every category; Jalen Brunson even outplayed Jimmy Butler. Every category except for one, that being 3-point shooting volume.
Had that been in the Knicks’ favor, they would’ve set up a Conference Finals showdown with the Boston Celtics, another team New York was 3-0 against in the regular season.
Yeah…gut-wrenching.
3. The Knicks didn’t address 3-point volume in free agency
The front office didn’t have much wiggle room. Their three biggest contracts formed a trio of players that played well together and did elevate them to the Semi-Finals. And their next three biggest contacts involved their hardest asset to move (a $18 million remaining salary of Evan Fournier), their newly-extended starting center, and their much-needed backup center.
Filling out the cap table were a handful of young players, some years away from potentially earning a second contract and two just a year away from receiving a big raise. One of the two, Obi Toppin, was the likeliest trade candidate entering the offseason should the team need flexibility.
While I was hoping they would add a few high-volume shooters, having nightmares of Gabe Vincent creating 3 points out of thin air and Duncan Robinson sinking an outside shot with virtually zero airspace, the Knicks’ front office aimed to add more complementary pieces. They were enamored with Josh Hart, a midseason acquisition who revitalized their grit and endurance brand of basketball, and were determined to re-sign him and add similar pieces.
Hart, picking up his player option for the 2024 season (and subsequently passing on a higher-paying long-term deal), proved to be invaluable for the Knicks. He was not stepping on any of the star’s toes and he did the dirty work for them on both ends, while draining a ridiculous 52% of his 3-point attempts.
But what was his *volume*? I’m so glad you asked. Hart only shot 2.1 attempts per game during his 25 games in New York last year, not really taking advantage of his 52% marksmanship. It was a great re-signing, essential to their success, and I knew that wasn’t the answer to the volume problem.
I’m not sure Donte DiVincenzo is it either.
Another Villanova graduate, and former teammate of Hart’s on the 2016 National Championship team, DiVincenzo is a very similar player. He’s defense-first, a great rebounder for his position, a good “team passer”, athletic driving to the hole, and a knockdown 3-point shooter off-the-catch.
You’ll be happy to hear that in his lone season in Golden State, DiVincenzo made 39.7% of his 5.3 attempts per game. That puts him in Kyle Lowry and Gabe Vincent range in terms of volume, and on that kind of volume, he has to have some element of independence when it comes to shooting.
He didn’t play a big role in the postseason, starting just 1 of 13 games and averaging 18 minutes per contest, but most of his shot attempts (about 75%) were from 3-point range. He shot 3.4 attempts per game, which would’ve been more volume than Josh Hart in roughly half the playing time.
But just how much of a problem-solver will DiVincenzo be for 4-years, $50 million?
I’m happy to find that in 17 of his 72 regular season games, he had at least 8 3-point attempts, maxing out at 12 (twice). This is enough for me to give him a “high volume shooter” tag, and avoid the “chucker” label given he shot well when taking that many (40-60% success rates).
I’m only skeptical about him filling the need for two reasons:
I’m not sure how many minutes DiVincenzo will play per game. The Knicks have up-and-coming and high-efficient outside shooters in Quickley and Grimes, and they still have the promising Miles McBride too. I’m hoping the plan isn’t to use Donte merely as another floor-spacing and gritty Josh Hart, in limited time and just to advance the play of his Nova mates.
And I’m not sure how effective DiVincenzo will be in a slower system and without the greatest shooting backcourt of all-time. In most of his playing time last year in Golden State, he played with both or one of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. That certainly could have led to a career-best 39.7% clip from 3-point range.
I don’t have a problem with the DiVincenzo signing. There are many positives because of the fit and little negatives in his all-around game. I think he’ll be a nice addition to the volume problem, but he’s just one guy and he’s expensive, now the 6th-highest paid player on the team.
The Knicks then traded Obi Toppin, a young player who never meshed with Coach Thibodeau and for this purpose, was never a high-volume 3-point shooter or even a consistently effective one. They signed Isaiah Roby as his replacement, an athletic finisher with a mechanical outside shot, so still no dice.
Evan Fournier, a very high-volume 3-point shooter who lost his spot in the rotation, now has a movable contract that will most likely bring in a player who fits Thibs’ play style, and I’m hoping it’s someone with some sort of “chucker” at this point because I don’t see more money or rotation minutes left.
The Knicks missed an opportunity to land inexpensive, much-needed volume 3-point shooting:
Joe Ingles, 2/$22M to ORL, 4.4 3-point attempts per game in 2023
Georges Niang, 3/$25.5M to CLE, 4.9 3-point attempts per game in 2023
Jevon Carter, 3/$19.5M to CHI, 4.2 3-point attempts per game in 2023
Seth Curry, 2/$9M to DAL, 3.8 3-point attempts per game in 2023
Eric Gordon, 2/$6.5M to PHX, 5.2 3-point attempts per game in 2023
Kevin Love, 2/$7.8M to MIA, 4.8 3-point attempts per game
Final Note
Knicks fans are still waiting to hang banner No. 3. I’m not saying they’re close, but they’re way closer than they’ve been in the previous ten years. It’s been a long, painful journey to this point in the time, and for all the critiques fans like to spew out on a daily basis and on a variety of outlets, there’s a lot to appreciate and be thankful for.
The Knicks have a star big who they scouted and built up as their own, someone who can actually perform under the bright lights and has embraced the identity of the brand of basketball his coach wants to play.
They have a good up-and-coming player who loves being a part of the organization, someone at such a young age so unafraid to fail and conscious of the postseason he needed to deliver.
They have an actual NBA-caliber head coach, someone who’s installed his blueprint for success and gotten the very most out of his best players, no matter their size and no matter their mindset.
And they have an unbelievable superstar in the making, someone also built for the bright lights, who has made a tremendous impact in such short time and is the rare combination of best player-culture setter.
They have defense, depth, young talent, and togetherness. They have a healthy cap table, assets, and an appealing situation for free agents.
While their former draft lottery colleagues the Magic, the Pistons, the Hornets, and others are if seeing if their young core can coincide and actually succeed, they have seen two playoff berths and a series win.
The Knicks are an Eastern Conference juggernaut, among the likes of the Heat, Bucks, and Celtics.
But in order to take the next step and become a legitimate championship contender, they’ll need to address their biggest weakness currently inhibiting their “playoff roster”.
In a city full of skyscrapers and larger-than-life buildings, the front office must follow suit and raise the team’s ceiling.
What I really love most about Free Agency is seeing players leave teams who are underutilizing them for teams that will give them a chance at reaching their potential. Players change teams for several reasons: more money, a better role, heading home, a shot at the title. But what excites me more than anything are perfect pairings, a moment in a time when a team needs a player, a player needs a new team, and the money works for both sides.
That’s the case here with Grant Williams, a 24-year-old power forward who was signed-and-traded from the Boston Celtics to the Dallas Mavericks. Williams, a first-round pick from the 2019 NBA Draft, signed a 4-year deal for $54 million. It’s one of the most lucrative moves of the offseason among players who’ve changed teams.
The Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks each took the much-needed step forward in 2022, yet both took a gut-wrenching step backward in 2023.
The Celtics entered the year as the reigning Eastern Conference Champions and finished the calendar year as a heavy favorite win it all (they were an NBA-best 26-10 on New Year’s Eve). They fought their way back to the Conference Finals for another showdown with the Heat, but lost Game 7 at home after being down 3-0.
The Mavericks entered the year as the Western Conference’s next team in line and finished the calendar year comfortably in 4th place (21-16 and 3 games back of the Denver Nuggets). Then the NBA’s leading scorer started running out of gas, leading to lineup changes that would ultimately cost the team its top-5 defense. They’d go on to make an enormous gamble, trading away their two best secondary players for a superstar, which in turn limited their offensive output and led to a crash landing in 11th place (they were 36-36 before finishing the season 2-8).
These disappointing campaigns have led to franchise-altering moves this summer. The Celtics, disheartened by yet another playoff exit, traded their heart-and-soul in Marcus Smart for the higher-ceiling offensive wizard Kristaps Porzingis, signaling a shift in their on-court scheme. The Mavericks, desperate to recover from their mismanagement of Jalen Brunson, decided to re-sign their midseason gamble Kyrie Irving to a 3-year deal (with $120 million guaranteed).
By flipping the role-playing Smart for the starring Porzingis, the Celtics are weakening their defensive identity for the sake of scoring, and cutting into their high payroll to do so. By bringing back Irving, the Mavericks are committing to a superstar backcourt with shaky depth behind it.
With the Celtics needing to shed more salary and create minutes for their new man in the middle, and the Mavericks needing to replace the frontcourt player they were desperately missing after dealing for a superstar, the teams agreed on a sign-and-trade sending our man Grant Williams to Dallas.
And I am over the moon about it for a few reasons…
1. Grant finally gets the room to shine
What do you know about Grant Williams?
You may remember him starting his NBA career by missing his first 25 3-point attempts, then making a turnaround in the Conference Finals sinking 10 of his 17 3-point attempts over six games.
You should remember him averaging less than 8 points per game in 2022, then erupting for 27 points in Game 7, a game in which he drilled 7 3-pointers and sent the defending champion Bucks packing.
And you in all likelihood remember him butting heads with Jimmy Butler two months ago in a highly-contested Conference Finals, a battle which…Grant lost in brutal fashion with Butler having his way with the bigger defender.
But I bet you don’t remember much about his pre-NBA life.
Grant is the son of a celebrity bodyguard and an electrical engineer for NASA. Despite being the youngest person in his high school class, he starred academically and collegiately earning basketball scholarships to play for Harvard and Yale.
He instead opted for the basketball-savvy Southeastern Conference and committed to the University of Tennessee. He started as a defensive-minded freshman and earned conference All-Freshman honors. Then he entered a starring role, taking over the SEC as a sophomore and then putting his team on the map nationally as a junior.
Grant won back-to-back Conference Player of the Year Awards, the first to do so in the SEC since Arkansas’ Corliss Williamson, and before him LSU’s Shaquille O’Neal. He led the Volunteers to the most wins in program history (31) and a 2-seed in the NCAA Tournament. He graduated a year early and at last declared for the NBA Draft.
I was elated to see him land with the Celtics at the 22nd pick, an organization which maximizes players’ intelligence and defensive effort. They’ve also historically been a fantastic developmental team, pretty much turning any top prospect into a star and any role player into a highly-sought after gem. Two examples I can come up with are Kevin McHale, who started as Boston’s highly-skilled Sixth Man, and Glen Davis, the “Big Baby” who bullied opponents and had great touch.
His career pretty much followed that same arc. He spent Year 1 learning the system and the NBA 3-point line, spent Year 2 building up his defense and improving his outside shot, spent Year 3 as a fill-in starter with winning plays and a sizzling 3-point stroke, and spent Year 4 as a certified role player who had all-around skill and a heart for the Celtics.
But Boston didn’t achieve the same glory like they had in the past. Kevin McHale and Glen Davis won championships, and earned second contracts as integral pieces to the Celtics’ identity. Grant Williams wasn’t able to win a championship, and since their last memory of him is being tossed around like a younger brother against Jimmy Butler, they weren’t fully committing to a second contract.
The long-time reserve signed with Dallas for what us NBA fans like to call “starters money” and the Celtics weren’t willing to cede him that title. Now as a starter for the Mavericks, Grant is finally getting the room to shine with more opportunities to be an impact player.
And man oh man am I excited…
2. Grant gets to play with Luka Doncic
When I think of describing Luka Doncic in one sentence, I’ve never had more wind knocked out of my chest, but here it goes…
Luka Doncic is…the Chosen one…half pure basketball genius, half all-worldly elite basketball talent, who’s had an unfathomable list of accolades before turning 25-years-old and has had the kind of jaw-dropping performances only seen in the tales of NBA legends.
The Don. Wonder Boy. Luka Magic. He’s all of it.
Playing with Luka Doncic can be magnificent for your career.
Spencer Dinwiddie regained his stature as a star, playing with the same confidence Luka has. Jalen Brunson had less weight on his shoulders, enabling his progression as a star more naturally and giving him a chance to grow when Luka was out. Reggie Bullock joined a small group of highly-sought-after 3&D extra-ordinaries, and Dorian Finney-Smith became a terrific starter with enough value to swing a deal for Kyrie Irving.
These are not just the typical effects of playing alongside superstars. They’ve each reached their fullest potential learning from and playing with the wunderkind. He’s maximized their individual scoring skill, their driving and shooting game, their 3-point prowess, and their defensive identity respectively.
Here’s an example:
2017-2019: 5.9 PPG, 30.3 3PT%, 0.7 STL
2019-2022: 10.2 PPG, 38.9 3PT%, 0.9 STL
2023: 7.2 PPG, 30.6 3PT%, 0.7 STL
This is power forward Dorian Finney-Smith in the pre-superstar-Luka years, superstar-Luka years, and 26 games away from Luka.
This is the role a 24-year-old, collegiate-starring, lethal shooting, defensive-switching Grant Williams is entering.
I don’t believe Grant was maximized in Boston, and now that he’s gone, I think Celtics fans might generally agree. He was put in a box figuratively as an off-the-bench floor spacer and hustle guy. And despite his rapid growth (4.7 to 7.8 PPG, 37.2 to 41.1 3PT% from 2021 to 2022), his minutes remained the same.
Though he shot with much better efficiency in the 2023 playoffs, he played less minutes than he did in the 2022 playoffs. He played just 3 minutes of the Semi-Final Game 7 after taking over a duel between Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jayson Tatum the previous year. He was a DNP-CD in Game 1 against the Heat (which stands for Did Not Play – Coach’s Decision).
I get all that is attributed to the change to coach Joe Mazzulla, but it illustrates my point that TWO head coaches underutilized him. And I’d be foolish to say it’s because of that, but still, both teams didn’t win the NBA title, while McHale and “Big Baby” Davis did.
Playing next to Luka, and a new head coach, should drastically elevate his game. And my next section will illustrate why.
3. Grant to Dallas is a perfect marriage
The perfect marriage, one of my favorite sports management terms. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, Mike Krzyzewski and Christian Laettner, even Isiah Thomas and Bill Lambieer. When two entities find their missing link and it makes their greatest attribute stronger, that’s when you have a match made in heaven.
I’m certainly not making a comparison here, but Grant Williams joining the Dallas Mavericks fills my heart.
I love Luka Doncic, he’s the closest I’ve seen to a young LeBron James, and since I’ve seen Luka grow into one of the best players in the NBA, I can’t help but deeply rooting for him to succeed. I want his career to follow the trajectories of the all-time greats, because I believe him to be one of the very rare ones: a talent that transcends the NBA and has a storybook fairy tale career.
And I apologize if that is absolutely nauseating for you to hear, given the guy is cocky, whiny, unapologetic, bad tempered, and not even American. But outside of my beloved Knicks, I really wish the best for the Mavs.
I’m hating the notion that Luka might be on the market if things don’t turn around soon. Nobody would think of Michael Jordan in the same light if he decided to back out and team up with Barkley in Phoenix. He stayed with and cemented the Chicago Bulls as a dynasty, and I believe Luka has that same potential to lift the Dallas Mavericks and have a storied career with the franchise he started with.
But you know from NBA history that those all-time stories all had breaking points, additions or decisions that were critical to the titles. Michael Jordan needed “help”, Shaquille O’Neal needed “help”, Stephen Curry needed “help”.
Luka Doncic, coming off an 11th place finish in the Western Conference below the rebuilding Oklahoma City Thunder needs help, a lot of help, and the clock is ticking.
The Mavs made, up to this point, a colossal mistake trading Spencer Dinwiddie and Dorian Finney-Smith, tanking their offensive output and defensive intensity in one foul swoop. It was a gamble and should in the long-run raise their ceiling because Kyrie Irving is a legitimate championship-caliber player. However it could be the second colossal mistake after the first colossal mistake, letting Jalen Brunson go and letting him go for nothing at all.
Specifically, Luka needs a few things before he can even start thinking NBA championship and just start thinking playoff run. He needs an actual power forward, one that’s not the out-of-position Reggie Bullock and one that ideally spaces the floor and plays solid defense. He needs a tertiary (yes, I use this word often) scorer, as every great superstar does and especially one in a perimeter-heavy backcourt. And if he really wants to have a chance at the title, he needs great, committed, long defenders and elite, anytime you need it, 3-point marksmen.
Grant Williams checks all those boxes, on a fifth-starter salary…
He’s going to be a better version of the very successful Dorian Finney-Smith, since he’s an outstanding catch-and-shooter and individual defender. He’s capable of being a reliable double-digit scorer, going back to his staring days at Tennessee and his 11.4 career average when playing 30+ minutes. And he is exactly a long, versatile, hard-nosed defender with a propensity to make 3-pointers at a high success rate and high volume.
Clearly Dallas knew what they were missing, and clearly Grant saw an opportunity to expand his defined game.
Final Note
This piece goes beyond “good fit”, and while it is an opinion-based piece about a team I want to succeed, I think I made convincing arguments.
But ultimately it all comes down to Grant Williams.
I believe he can reach his full potential in this next chapter. I’ve seen glimpses of a player defenses really had to worry about, on both sides of the ball. He makes smart plays, he’s a proven winner, he excels at two of the toughest elements of pro basketball, and it all combines to make him a damn good supporting player.
It all went haywire for Dallas when they lost their grip defensively, as it was the other half of the puzzle paired with Luka’s godly offensive production, but Richaun Holmes and Dereck Lively and now Grant Williams should help with that.
Something also very important in the mix is Kyrie Irving, the most mentally disengaged superstar I’ve ever seen. There needs to be depth to mitigate that huge risk, but players who want to star like Josh Green and Jaden Hardy and now Grant Williams should also help with that.
And the final element that lifted the Mavericks to their most recent height was their edge. They were confident, smart, played hard, and played stern until you did something to tick them off or make them smile. That’s why I know the Mavericks, Luka, and Grant are a perfect marriage:
Dallas lost a gem last summer in Jalen Brunson, but for what it’s worth, they found one this summer in Grant Williams.
The Mavs need him and he needs them. And to pay homage to his NASA-based family, let’s see how high this baby can fly…
If you’ve been keeping up with the NBA offseason thus far, you’ll know the hottest topic of the summer is Damian Lillard requesting a trade.
The Trail Blazer-lifer is about to turn 33 years old and is coming off a spectacular season, in which he became the franchise’s leading scorer and recorded a monstrous 71-point game. After several years of sliding down the Western Conference, the league’s most loyal superstar has finally proclaimed he wants out.
We’ll get into why Portland absolutely must pull the trigger (and how they got to this sorrow point) at another time. All you need to know is that Lillard wants to join a contender, and his number one choice is the Miami Heat.
The idea has generated serious buzz because Lillard would be a superb addition to the Heat, who fell just one series shy of winning the NBA title last month. With Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo almost entirely off-the-table in trade discussions, everyone is looking to Tyler Herro as the main piece in a Lillard-Heat deal.
Reading that notion, you’re going to feel one of two ways. You might be on Portland’s side, who’s strangely admitted, very publicly, that Herro doesn’t interest them. This feels less like a logjam issue (The Blazers already have 3 enticing young guards) and more like disbelief that Herro could be their next star, or at the very least, a worthy centerpiece in a trade for their best all-time player.
I’ll admit that Herro to Portland isn’t a great fit, but I’m not on Portland’s side here. He is a worthy piece to net back Damian Lillard, just not the only piece to seal the deal. Obviously more assets, realistically rotation players, would be added to the mix.
Herro not being a great fit to Portland has spun the rumor mill even more, that a 3rd team, maybe even a 4th team, would be part of a trade sending Lillard to Miami, and subsequently Herro to a more ideal destination.
While I personally believe that to be the best outcome, many in the NBA media are starting to pressure the Heat to go all-in. Since they know a Tyler Herro-centered trade package isn’t interesting the Blazers, they’re now brainstorming every possible asset they could include to swing the deal their way. Putting it bluntly, trading every draft pick they own and every movable prospect in a Paul George/Rudy Gobert/James Harden-esque super-package.
And to me, that would be a mistake. While Damian Lillard joining the Heat would be awesome, it’s not the be all-end all. The Heat will be just fine because…
They’ll keep Tyler Herro
It’s fair to argue the 23-year old Kentucky product was holding the Heat back, due to inefficient shooting and too much time with the ball. After their third-leading scorer broke his hand in the first postseason game, his team would go on the greatest playoff run in league history. They upset the top-seeded Bucks, ousted the Knicks, and overcame the Celtics to reach the NBA Finals as an 8-seed.
The Heat found a new gear without Tyler Herro. They played more efficient role players like Caleb Martin, improved their defense through Gabe Vincent, fed the beast often in Bam Adebayo, and created a monster in Jimmy Butler.
Ultimately Miami fell to a better team, but you’d be lying to yourself throughout their historic run if you didn’t at least question whether Tyler Herro was expendable. Was he holding the Heat back the previous year when they fell to Boston, or the year before when the Heat were obliterated by Milwaukee?
The truth is he wasn’t, and there’s no question that a dynamic, shot-creating perimeter threat, with ball-handling skills, would’ve given the Heat more juice against Denver, and certainly would’ve made things easier against the Celtics.
Tyler Herro is still a tremendous piece for the Heat, and a dangerous scorer independently as well as complementary to Jimmy Butler. While he may not fit the mold of the Heat’s physical, defense-first play style, the foundation for their miraculous playoff run, his offensive delivery greatly outweighs his shortcomings on the other end.
Jimmy Butler was exhausted at the end of the Heat’s Finals run. He desperately needed someone else to share the weight offensively. Yes Damian Lillard is a singular juggernaut, but don’t act like Tyler Herro hasn’t already been a big-time performer.
He was the youngest player and youngest rookie to score 30 points in a Conference Finals game, he broke the rookie record for most 3-pointers in a single postseason (45), and broke a 44-year-old rookie record scoring double-digits in 20 straight games. He’s also the youngest player to ever start an NBA Finals game, eight days younger than Magic Johnson.
2. The East is crumbling
The 8-seeded Heat ran through a gauntlet of Beasts in the East. It was a demoralizing stretch, and despite being so unprecedented, it’s caused ripple effects throughout their conference.
The effects are similar to what the Heat are experiencing now. At the start of this calendar year, Miami was struggling and looking like they were no sure thing for the play-in. Now in July, they’re the reigning Eastern Conference Champions and the front-runner to land Damian Lillard. The magic of a playoff run…
Their historic upset of the top-seeded Bucks, a team that smoked the Heat just two years prior, was so appalling that they fired Mike Budenholzer. He was the head coach who led them to the NBA title, their first in a half-century, and earned Coach of the Year Honors in his first season with the club. The team many believed would be the league’s next powerhouse is starting fresh and putting their contention in jeopardy.
Their one-upping of the defensive-prided Knicks, a team that went undefeated against the Heat in the regular season, in some ways caused the team to trade Obi Toppin. The 8th overall pick from the 2020 Draft couldn’t hang with the fast and physical Heat. The Knicks learned that Julius Randle’s toughness was critical to competing at that stage, and that Toppin, for all his gifts, wasn’t ready for that battle.
And their early-series success against the mighty Celtics, a team playing off a series win over the Heat the year prior, was gut-wrenching enough that they’ve made drastic personnel changes. They traded their heart-and-soul, Celtics-lifer Marcus Smart, for Kristaps Porzingis in an attempt to raise their offensive ceiling, and they also traded their rising role player, Grant Williams, who looked overwhelmed defending Jimmy Butler. The Heat clearly rattled the Celtics, their arch nemesis who practically set their mantra of passing and grittiness on fire.
And then you have the Sixers, who at long last fired head coach Doc Rivers and are balancing two very different trade opportunities. They’re not sure if they want to bring James Harden back for another season or if they’re going to trade him, they’re not sure if they’re going to keep Tyrese Maxey as a cornerstone player, but they know they want to enter the Damian Lillard sweepstakes despite not really being a contender after yet another failure. They’re a lot at the moment.
Even with the Nets also in the sweepstakes and on the rise, and the Cavaliers entering a second year with their young core, and the Pacers making splashes in free agency, there’s nobody as safe as the Miami Heat in the East. Damian Lillard would certainly be a steroid, and almost guarantee the Heat a trip back to the Finals, but the only medicine the team needs right now is rest and replacements for Max Strus and Gabe Vincent.
3. They can beat Lillard on another team
My only caveat, I’ll admit it, is the Boston Celtics. If they actually decide to trade Jaylen Brown for Damian Lillard, the Heat would be in trouble. A Tatum-Dame combo is scary as all hell and would require another God-like playoff run out of Jimmy Butler, and rapid progression from Tyler Herro. But I really don’t think that’s going to happen.
The two teams in the Eastern Conference that are knowingly entered in the sweepstakes are Philadelphia and Brooklyn.
Lillard alongside Mikal Bridges, in a starting set with Cam Johnson and Nic Claxton, on a team with solid perimeter depth, still doesn’t feel like it would give the Heat a challenge. Besides a lone trip to the Western Conference Finals (a Kevin Durant-less sweep by the way), we don’t actually know if Lillard has what it takes to “climb the mountain”. I know it sounds ridiculous, even unfair, but he hasn’t made it to a stage of real adversity, and that Warriors matchup was four long years ago.
It’d be a lot to bet on a 33-year-old Lillard, as fantastic as he is, as a #1 option, going head-to-head with the likes of Butler, Giannis, Embiid, or Tatum. It’d take a magical performance from Mikal Bridges, still finding his footing as a leading man, in a Semi-Finals/Conference Finals. And I don’t believe Cam Johnson and Nic Claxton to be experienced enough to hang.
Lillard alongside Joel Embiid, likely not next to James Harden, but still surrounded by shooting and some terrific defenders, feels eerily similar to what we already have now. Sure, a Nick Nurse team is polar opposites of a Doc Rivers team, but the Sixers are routine chokers and haven’t developed a “mean” identity. Their role players aren’t all that inspiring and they’d in all likelihood lose the threat of Tyrese Maxey in a trade to acquire Lillard.
Joel Embiid is a remarkable player on both ends, at times unstoppable, yet he still, still, in 2023, has not reached a Conference Finals. I wish I could have more confidence in Embiid, but he blew his golden opportunity against the Celtics and was a heartless 5-18 in Game 7. He would put an underestimated level of pressure onto Dame, who would need to deliver like he has in the past when the going gets tough: a Miracle Maker.
But if you believe the Nets and Sixers could be legitimate threats, by adding Lillard and retaining their best two players, do you believe Lillard could dethrone the Heat? Spoelstra’s guys made life challenging for Jrue Holiday, sacrificed a Jalen Brunson trashing to shut down the paint, and forced the Celtics’ reconsider their entire offense. Yes none of those guards are Damian Lillard, but none of those offenses had their way with the Heat.
And this would be a new system, a new environment, new teammates, a new role, and an older Dame.
Final Note
I have all the confidence in the world that Pat Riley and Co. will get this done, and bring Damian Lillard to his preferred destination of Miami. He’s the executive who traded for Shaquille O’Neal, signed LeBron James, and bet on Jimmy Butler turning his attitude around. The Heat know more than anyone they have a championship window, and have always found a way to improve the head of the snake.
I think Damian Lillard joining the Heat would be absolutely fantastic for the current roster and Dame himself, finally giving him a real shot at the NBA title. Adding his hyper-explosive and un-guardable offensive game would be a well-earned reward for the Heat’s defensive hustle.
But I don’t think acquiring Dame is the be-all end-all, even as their Eastern Conference combatants make their push. They shouldn’t be feeling pressure, they should be feeling leverage, that one of the greatest players in the history of the game wants to join forces for his curtain call, and that either way they still have imposed fear throughout the East.
Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo is the best two-man tandem in the conference, Erik Spoelstra has the East’s strongest brand of basketball, and Tyler Herro will return to add much-needed firepower.
Be patient with regards to Lillard and have faith in the Heat. They’ve earned it.
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